As we approach the end of the 2024 sales year, General Motors and Honda are emerging as standout performers, with projected fourth-quarter sales boosts of 18.5% and 5.9%, respectively. This uptick is highlighted by a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.4 million vehicles, up from 15.6 million in the third quarter.
Cox Automotive analysts attribute this surge to rising consumer confidence and decreasing interest rates. However, the potential impacts of the previous Trump administration's policies introduce some uncertainty. While the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts could boost sales, tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods might inflate prices.
Tesla continues to dominate the US electric vehicle market with a 49.5% share. Despite this dominance, new electric vehicle sales are projected to rise 12% year-over-year in 2024, making up 8% of total vehicle sales. Looking ahead to 2025, EVs are expected to capture a 10% market share.
Sales are on the rise for compact models like the Honda Civic and Chevrolet Trax, but Tesla faces challenges in the fourth quarter, with only a 0.6% sales increase over last year. Analysts point to Tesla's aging product line and political associations as potential hurdles.
Incentives have returned to pre-pandemic levels, now representing 8% of transaction prices. The average transaction price (ATP) for electric vehicles stands at $55,105, with a high incentive level of 14.9%.
GM is projected to achieve a 16.8% market share with 2.69 million vehicles sold. Honda, with an 8.8% market share, follows Toyota, Hyundai, and Ford. Meanwhile, Stellantis and Tesla are facing anticipated sales declines.
If you're considering purchasing a new car, you can expect improved sticker price bargains, though higher interest rates may apply. However, tariffs could increase costs across all vehicle types.
The fourth quarter has breathed new life into the auto market, with significant gains from major manufacturers. Despite uncertainties, the outlook remains positive, especially for electric vehicles. However, prospective buyers should be cautious of tariffs that might drive up vehicle prices.
